Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
